CensusOnline

The changing face of Aotearoa New Zealand

A Special Report based on the Key Results of the 2018 Census

Published March, 2020
The purpose of this special report is to provide highlights from the 2018 Census dataset in order to describe the changing face of Aotearoa New Zealand. Much of the data presented in this report is based on data variables that Statistics New Zealand has given a ‘high’ or ‘very high’ quality rating. This includes the following variables: population count (usually resident), age, gender, ethnicity, Māori descent, and usual residence address (meshblock). Where appropriate, we have also used projections to describe what Aotearoa New Zealand might look like in the immediate future.
Key results
1. Aotearoa New Zealand’s population is expected to grow to over 5 million in 2020.
2. The population continues to grow as a result of immigration rather than natural population increase.
3. Almost one-in-every-three New Zealanders was born overseas.
4. Aotearoa New Zealand is now the fourth most culturally diverse country in the OECD.
5. People of Asian ethnicity represent the fastest growing ethnic group in Aotearoa New Zealand’s population.
6. The population is living longer and growing older.
7. The working age population, as a percentage of the total population, will stabilise in the foreseeable future at 55%.
1. The population is solidly urban-based, with Auckland dominant and accounting for one-in-every-three New Zealanders.
This special report presents eight (8) key results based on the 2018 Census to illustrate the changing face of Aotearoa New Zealand. In most cases, these will not surprise the reader; rather they will confirm known trends and put numbers around them.
2020

2022

2023

2018

2016

6M (Million)

5M

4M

2017

2019

2021

95th percentile

75th percentile

50th percentile

25th percentile

5th percentile

Projected population growth
150,000

120,000

90,000

60,000

30,000

0

Population increase

Natural vs migration

Migrant arrivals

Migrant departures

NET MIGRATION

50,631

NATURAL INCREASE

24,798

Live births

Deaths
1986

1991

1996

2001

2006

2013

2018

Born outside Aotearoa New Zealand

Born in Aotearoa New Zealand

15

85

17

83

21

79

23

77

27

73

30

70

29

71

Birthplace

0%

100%

20%

40%

60%

80%
1986

0%

100%

20%

40%

60%

80%

United Kingdom & Ireland

China

India

Australia

Fiji

Philippines

South Africa

Samoa

Other Asia

Other Europe

Other Pacific

Other Africa & Middle East

Americas & Caribbean

Birthplace of those born outside Aotearoa New Zealand

52

1991

45

10

10

2018

22

11

13

2006

29

13

1996

38

13

2001

32

14

2013

27

12

Total born overseas in Asian countries

0%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

China

India

Philippines

Other Asia

1986

6

1991

12

1996

13

19

2001

14

24

2006

13

29

2013

12

32

2018

11

13

38
Columbia

Mexico

Canada

New Zealand

Russian Federation

United States

France (New Caledonia)

Costa Rica

Sweden

Chile

Australia

Finland

Denmark (Greenland)

Norway

Japan

Diversity index in OECD member and accession countries

0.656

0.542

0.499

0.363

0.311

0.271

0.251

0.238

0.189

0.167

0.147

0.132

0.128

0.098

0.012

Cultural diversity index

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10
Other

Asian

Pacific Peoples

Maori

European

Projected growth of Asian population

Ethnicity

7

6

6

5

5

7

7
Age-group populations

0%

100%

65+ years

40-64 years

15-39 years

0-14 years

Projected 65+ age-group population growth

0%

20%
2028

2038

6M

5M

4M

3M

2M

1M

0

Projected working age population growth

Population

WORKING AGE Population

working age POPulatioN
AS % OF TOTAL Population

60%

50%

55

56

56

55

55

55

55

55
2028

2038

2043

2018

2013

6M

5M

4M

3M

2M

1M

0

2023

2033

Projected Auckland population growth

AUCKLAND Population

40%

35%

30%

AUCKLAND POPN. AS % OF TOTAL Population

34

35

36

38

39

39

Population
2028

2038

2018

2013

2M

1M

0

2023

2033

Projected Auckland & Asian ethnicity population growth

AUCKLAND Population

ASIAN Population IN AUCKLAND

ASIAN POPN. AS % OF Auckland Population

32

31

28

23

34

35

35%

30%

25%

20%
Population growth by Auckland, Main urban centres, and Rest of Aotearoa New Zealand

Rest of Aotearoa New Zealand

Main urban centres:

Wellington, Christchurch, Hamilton, Dunedin, Tauranga, Palmerston North,

Napier, Nelson, Invercargill

Auckland
Results from the 2018 Census of Population & Dwellings began to be published in late 2020, after Statistics New Zealand had completed its data quality checking processes. Participation in the 2018 Census was lower than previous censuses and as a result, Statistics New Zealand used data from administrative sources and different methodologies to produce a fit-for-purpose dataset.

The dataset contains records for approximately 4.7 million people and this is 1.4% (or 69,000 people) less than Statistic New Zealand’s best estimate of Aotearoa New Zealand’s population on Census Day (6 March 2018). By comparison, the official undercount in 2013 was 2.4%. Eighty-nine percent of the total number of records have come from the 2018 Census forms and 11% from other sources of government data.

The Census dataset
Author: Emanuel Kalafatelis, Managing Partner

Rangahau Aotearoa | Research New Zealand

www.researchnz.com

Rangahau Aotearoa Research New Zealand is a corporate member of the European Society of Opinion and Marketing Research (ESOMAR). All staff and contractors working on behalf abide by ESOMAR’s Code of Practice. This is also the Code of the International Chamber of Commerce.

ESOMAR’s Code of Practice may be downloaded from https://www.esomar.org

Design: Mick Finn

The changing face of Aotearoa New Zealand

A Special Report based on the Key Results of the 2018 Census